Taiwan Joins U.S. Visa Waiver Program: What’s China to Think?

Taiwanese will be eligible to visit the U.S. visa-free for up to 90 days for business or tourism beginning November 1, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has announced.

A reporter asked the White House press secretary, “what’s the message to China on this Taiwan opening?” The reply: “There’s no message to any other country.”

But in fact, by admitting Taiwan to the the visa waiver program (VWP), the U.S. intended to send strong messages.

It’s a reminder to China’s neighbors, who are wary of overcommitting to either side in the competition between Washington and Beijing, that friendship with the U.S. has benefits.

And for Chinese, it sets a goal of a future where the PRC passport is capable of visa-free travel to places like Europe and America, thereby confirming China’s rise on the world stage.

Why Was Taiwan Included in the VWP?

The immediate goals of the VWP are to boost international business and tourism, while allowing the Department of State to shift its consular resources to posts with higher-risk visa applicants.

The VWP accounted for 18.3 million visits to the U.S. in fiscal 2011, or more than 60 percent of the tourists and business travelers entering the U.S. by air.

Taiwan is the 37th country or region to participate in the VWP. Other Asian countries participating include Japan, South Korea, and Singapore.

A key Congressional requirement for the VWP is that a country or region has a low nonimmigrant visa refusal rate: less than 3% for the previous year or an average of no more than 2% over the past two years. Taiwan’s refusal rate had dropped to 2.2% by 2010.

The VWP also requires close security cooperation with the U.S. For example, a country or region must:

• accept the repatriation of citizens within three weeks after ordered deported;
• share terrorist watch lists and criminal databases with the U.S.; and
• be determined by DHS not to compromise the law enforcement or security interests of the U.S. by its inclusion in the program.

Taiwan has taken a number of steps to improve security of their passports and to improve information sharing with the U.S. about security threats.

Once those requirements could be fulfilled, other political factors made Taiwan’s inclusion in the VWP possible. The U.S. wants Taiwan’s tourist dollars. About 290,000 Taiwanese visited the U.S. last year, spending more than $1.1 billion. The VWP is expected to increase those numbers.

The Obama administration wants to claim Taiwan’s VWP admission as a triumph for U.S. job growth. Both the January 2012 announcement of Taiwan’s nomination for the VWP and this week’s announcement focused on the potential job growth.

The new policy is also timed for the U.S. elections. President Obama can claim it’s him sticking up for Taiwan at a time when both presidential candidates are keen to show they are tough on China.

Inclusion in the VWP represents a political victory for Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou and symbolizes Taiwan’s international stature.

Message to China’s Neighbors

The U.S. agreement to admit Taiwan to the VWP should be viewed within the prism of America’s larger foreign policy goals in the region. Its strategic rebalancing involves not just upgrading relations with Taiwan but various efforts in the region, such as efforts to build the free trade area of the Pacific, moving more military forces into the region, and improving relations with India. This is a response to Chinese power.

Some of China’s neighbors are nervous about getting caught between the competing interests of the two major powers. They want the benefit of economic engagement with China. They also want a security hedge from the U.S. should ties with China go sour. As Richard Bush of the Brookings Institution points out, America needs to shape Asian opinion in favor of its policies in order secure these countries’ cooperation.

So admitting Taiwan to the VWP is an act of public diplomacy. It tells China’s neighbors that friendship with the U.S. has benefits. If you think that VWP participation isn’t a big deal, consider how withholding VWP benefits has impacted the U.S.-Poland relationship. According to a Congressional Research Service report,

[Poland is] extremely unhappy with their exclusion from the VWP given their support of controversial policies in Iraq and in the firght against terrorism. They bristle at the time-consuming and expensive requirements their citizens incur when seeking to obtain U.S. visas…. Some officials acknowledge privately that the VWP is the biggest irritant in bilateral U.S. relations.

In sum, the message sent to China’s neighbors by Taiwan’s admission to the VWP is that their cooperation with America’s rebalancing will bring similar benefits to their citizens.

The Message to China

Taiwan passport holders can enter over 120 countries with no visa, but Chinese only about 20. Many of those 20 aren’t exactly common travel destinations, like the Cook Islands, Niue, and Vanuatu. That’s spawned a joke on China’s microblogs: If you go to all countries Taiwanese can enter visa-free, you’re well traveled; but if you go to all that Chinese can enter visa-free, you’re an explorer. (Get it?)

By admitting Taiwan to the VWP, the U.S. sends the message that in the future it’s possible for a PRC passport to be good for visa-free travel to Europe and America. Washington wants to send this message becuase it knows the rebalancing strategy is more likely to succeed if U.S. is not seen as attempting to contain China’s rise but instead as seeking a way for China to succeed by playing by the rules.

VWP participation isn’t visible on the horizon for China. It’s true that Chinese nonimmigrant visa refusal rates have been falling steadily and are now just over 10%. But security issues complicate U.S.-China travel in numerous ways. For example, hundreds of thousands of visa applications by Chinese scientists and high-tech workers have been subject to delays for security checks to screen out the handful seeking to illegally access to sensitive U.S. technologies. And China’s Communist Party members are ineligible for U.S. green cards, with some exceptions.

Those particular problems aren’t susceptible to easy resolution. But others are easier. For example, DHS isn’t satisfied that China is fully cooperating in repatriation of its nationals ordered deported. DHS says China’s lengthy background investigations to verify nationality and identity require an average of over 130 days, during which a person already deported may be required to remain in detention. There are some signs that this problem can be resolved.

Here’s what Washington can do to reinforce the message that playing be the rules will facilitate international travel.

First, Washington should publicly state on what conditions the U.S. would be willing to extend validity of tourist and business visas for Chinese nationals. (These are called B1 and B2 visas by the U.S., and L and F visas by China.) Visa validity is negotiated on a reciprocal basis. Currently, these visas are only valid for a year. Compare that to how the U.S. issues 10-year visas to citizens of other developing countries, such as India and Brazil. U.S. Ambassador Gary Locke has raised with the Chinese government the possibility of increasing visa validity. But it’s not clear what conditions have been placed on that offer, such as greater cooperation in repatriation. (Another concern is whether China is commonly granting the full one-year visa validity previously agreed to.)

Another way to let China know that playing by the rules makes the PRC passport more useful is by publicly stating on what conditions the U.S. would be willing to allow China’s participation in the Guam visa waiver program. The Territory of Guam is an island in the western Pacific and is an organized, unincorporated insular area of the U.S. Next door is the Commonwealth of Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI), a commonwealth in political union with the U.S. The immigration laws of the U.S. apply in both Guam and CNMI. Chinese are already eligible for CNMI’s visa waiver program, but for security reasons, including cooperation in repatriation, were not included in the Guam program, established in 2009. Russia overcame similar security concerns and was admitted to the Guam program earlier this year. Washington should tell Chinese how they can join the Guam visa waiver program.

Conclusion

China and the U.S. are likely to remain have a competitive relationship for the foreseeable future.

Taiwan’s admittance to the VWP sends the useful message to China’s neighbors that friendship with the U.S. has benefits.

It also sends Chinese the message that concrete cooperation with the U.S. on travel-related issues could make the PRC passport more convenient for international travel. That’s a message worth reinforcing.

———

More on the web:

* Jason Pan, Chinese Netizens Decry Visa Waiver Plan, Taipei Times (Oct. 4, 2012)

* William Lowther and Shi Shiu-chuan, China Not Consulted on Visa Deal: US, Taipei Times (Oct. 4, 2012)

* Jing Gao, U.S. Grants Visa-Free Status to Taiwan; Chinese Covet It, Ministry of Tofu (Oct. 3, 2012)

* Liz Carter, With U.S. Opening Doors to Taiwanese Wider, Mainland Chinese Ponder “The Greatest Distance on Earth,” Tea Leaf Nation (Oct. 4, 2012)